Financial Crisis Timeline / When will it all end?

[mcho78]

Okay so I wanted to start a thread on the shit I live and breath... would love to hear your thoughts...

So here goes...

1) Poorly rated Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) start us off with a BANG
2) Financial institutes financial statements in shambles due to losses/write offs in MBS/ABS (asset backed securities) assets
3) Lehman collapse leading to overall fear, here enters the credit crisis
4) Banks/Corporations inability/unwillingness to lend due to "trust" related issues
5) Banks unwilling to provide loans to anyone and everyone (home, education, etc), negative home equity for most home owners
6) Cost cutting by corporations due to lack of operating expenses, which in turn led to hike in unemployment
6) Lack of "money" leading to change of consumer spending patterns
7) Overall demand destruction of ALL products due to "evolving" spending pattern
8) Corporate earnings reaching all time lows due to lack of demand
9) Bad corporate earnings escalating to further restructuring of corporate America

Issues to be on the look out for:
1) Credit Card Loans
2) Auto Loans
3) Student Loans

Okay so this is pretty much it I guess... now comes what I believe to be interesting...

Lets just reiterate that the US is the NUMBER 1 CONSUMER in the world... if the US does not continue to buy imports, the world economy will be in TROUBLE (esp. Asia)

- EU in shambles due to single government structure/single currency
- All EU members experiencing different issues further restricting policy makers as each policy would have to be all encompassing (virtually impossible)

- Asia in shambles due to export nature of most developing countries
- China exports to US down approx 25%

I can go on and on but as you can see this is a really viscous cycle... when will this all play out?

Mike

PS: deflation is the name of the game, how come RC prices arent coming off :lol:

 

[run2jeepn]

The problem started 20yrs ago. When Credit cards came around and everyone started thinking it was ok to barrow money. 50yrs ago people would save up and pay cash for everything. 60-70yrs ago they even paid cash for houses. Now larger companies and even our government is barrowing money that they can't payback. Everyone was going for that quick buck to make to make there wallets fat. It just starting to catch up to them now is all.

Banks loaning money to Builders for houses that didn't have a market to sell to. It won't get any better till we start seeing what caused it...

If you get a chance read or watch the Dave Ramsey Video's. Pretty good ideas.

 

[CrawlinMike]

Looks to me like the US is in self-destruct mode. :evil:Like the Titanic except this iceberg was manmade and seen from a looong ways off...

 

[run2jeepn]

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Nice Sig

 

[mcho78]

Couldn't have been better said... Now I wonder how this whole debacle will end? I mean.. A lot of people refer to the end of the shadow banking system, "imaginative" investment vehicles hence lower overall margins/profits, overall hightened regulations, dramatic increase in consumer savings, change in spending patterns, nationalization of numerous industry leaders... It really is quite mind blowing... I haven't been working that long so this is all pretty new to me. JeepN,will definately take a look, I appreciate the heads up!

The problem started 20yrs ago. When Credit cards came around and everyone started thinking it was ok to barrow money. 50yrs ago people would save up and pay cash for everything. 60-70yrs ago they even paid cash for houses. Now larger companies and even our government is barrowing money that they can't payback. Everyone was going for that quick buck to make to make there wallets fat. It just starting to catch up to them now is all.

Banks loaning money to Builders for houses that didn't have a market to sell to. It won't get any better till we start seeing what caused it...

If you get a chance read or watch the Dave Ramsey Video's. Pretty ideas.

 

[binaryterror]

The problem started 20yrs ago. When Credit cards came around and everyone started thinking it was ok to barrow money. 50yrs ago people would save up and pay cash for everything. 60-70yrs ago they even paid cash for houses. Now larger companies and even our government is barrowing money that they can't payback. Everyone was going for that quick buck to make to make there wallets fat. It just starting to catch up to them now is all.

Banks loaning money to Builders for houses that didn't have a market to sell to. It won't get any better till we start seeing what caused it...

If you get a chance read or watch the Dave Ramsey Video's. Pretty good ideas.

OMG...mark this day on a calendar we agree completely :shock::shock::shock:

Being young (29) it's amazing speaking with my friends about credit card debit. Mine is less than $40 this month. I have friends with over $30,000 and they didn't even go to college, just buying this and that and upgrading everything.

Dave Ramsey FTW.

My financial stress is my student loans. Though those can't be avoided I tried for grants and scholarships got a few, but with school prices the way they are...its hard to get educated.

 

[caymin last]

"Instant gratification", "Greed", "crooked Politicians and Lawyers" and "A handfull of mega wealthy families(Unknown to the general public) who basicaly control the worlds financial banking system" are some of the main causes. How come a politician can still hold office or better yet be a chairperson of some important comittee in Gov. when they are being investigated? A Politician who refuses to resign when caught in obvious fraud or corruption is given the benefit of the doubt almost every time, currently there are at least half a dozen in the US house or senate who's integrity is in question, they should be suspended untill cleared or at least not allowed to vote on important issues.
Some of the Main stream news companies are also in the pocket of many in power, they contribute millions to their campaigns and pet projects, the never report on anything that would cause concern to this relationship.
Iv'e never been one for conspiracy theories ect. but recently I found some very interesting material on various wierd things that have been going on for years and some of it makes sense to become educated about, for instance 'The Bilderberg Group" (google it) and other groups of very powerfull people who meet, Like at "The Bohemain Grove",(google it).
There is good evidence of major corruption and foul play, but even hard evidence is not acted upon, like ex CIA officer Chip Tatum who has documented evidence of high level misdeeds, see The tatum Chronicals.
Sooner or later people will get pissed enough and start asking questions of our great leaders, but we will have to wait and see I guess.
Had to get this off my chest, because I AM PISSED OFF at the powers that be.

 

[CPE MT]

Don't skimp on education or you'll regret it. Depending on what field you're interested in, choose a school that does internships as part of the schooling.

Working (paid) for 12 weeks, then school for another 12, then repeating that process starting as a freshman helped to considerably reduce student costs. Pretty much everything I earned at the internship went towards paying tuition.

 

[dezfan]

Live your life like your Grandparents did, pay cash!

If you can't afford it, you don't need it.

 

[ecoli]

Don't forget, the nosedive in the US economy is now taking it's toll on your neighbours to the north ! Our dollar is in the toilet (again) after being on par or above the US dollar last summer, real estate prices are tanking, building starts are tanking, etc. It was to be expected as others said though, the US is our biggest export destination, so when your economy goes down, you take us (and numerous other countries) with you.

Moreover, with real estate, it was definitely an artificially inflated market over the past few years. We bought just about 5 years ago, and within 2 years the "value" of our house had doubled. People could not even find houses to buy at the peak, it was bound to come tumbling back down to reality. Currently, we're looking at renewing our mortgage which is great news with interest rates being so low. I've got a stable job so while this economy is tough on some, I think I'll actually benefit.

Having said that, it's still not good for the unemployment rate to be soaring to near double digit numbers and for record numbers of personal bankruptcy. I highly doubt the stimulus plans being put forth from any government is going to do a hell of a lot, as most people are now saving anything they can, not spending it. Especially the huge number of baby boomers entering into retirement.

 

[kasper]

the worst is the bank telling you to buy a $300,000.00 home wheen you cant afford a $100,000.00 home

 

[RANOVRU]

Live your life like your Grandparents did, pay cash!

If you can't afford it, you don't need it.

The problem with that is "need" & "want" mean the same thing to most people nowadays. If the only bartering system we had was cash then it would go something like this- "If you can't afford it, then you dont get it."


I got a deep one for ya...

Why again do we as a nation "need" banks in the first place??

Think about it...


Jon

 

[JeremyH]

The problem with that is "need" & "want" mean the same thing to most people nowadays.

Agreed!

I use the hell out of my credit card...buying every day items one it, but only for simplicity. It gets paid off every month and the card company makes no extra money out of me. I just like being able to pay one bill every month and have it take care of everything that I have purchased. These days, people dont understand the premise of a credit card.

Other than my home loan, I have zero debt. Paid off school loans...

That is what American's need to shoot for.

 

[JeremyH]

Mine is less than $40 this month.

A hefty credit bill is not synonymous with credit debt.

It feels good to not worry about debt, doesnt it?:ror:

 

[ctrwannabe]

"Instant gratification", "Greed", "crooked Politicians and Lawyers" and "A handfull of mega wealthy families(Unknown to the general public) who basicaly control the worlds financial banking system" are some of the main causes. How come a politician can still hold office or better yet be a chairperson of some important comittee in Gov. when they are being investigated? A Politician who refuses to resign when caught in obvious fraud or corruption is given the benefit of the doubt almost every time, currently there are at least half a dozen in the US house or senate who's integrity is in question, they should be suspended untill cleared or at least not allowed to vote on important issues.
Some of the Main stream news companies are also in the pocket of many in power, they contribute millions to their campaigns and pet projects, the never report on anything that would cause concern to this relationship.
Iv'e never been one for conspiracy theories ect. but recently I found some very interesting material on various wierd things that have been going on for years and some of it makes sense to become educated about, for instance 'The
Bilderberg Group" (google it) and other groups of very powerfull people who
meet, Like at "The Bohemain Grove",(google it).
There is good evidence of major corruption and foul play, but even hard evidence is not acted upon, like ex CIA officer Chip Tatum who has documented evidence of high level misdeeds, see The tatum Chronicals.
Sooner or later people will get pissed enough and start asking questions of our great leaders, but we will have to wait and see I guess.
Had to get this off my chest, because I AM PISSED OFF at the powers that be.

I'm glad I'm not the only one have knowlege of these topics if you dig deeper into this it gets even crazyer....

 

[4u2nv]

the worst is the bank telling you to buy a $300,000.00 home wheen you cant afford a $100,000.00 home

That's a problem right there... but it all comes down to people just aren't smart. The bank told us we could afford a 400k dollar home, this is based on our Gross income, I don't know anyone who gets to live on their gross income. We ended up paying 220k and it's hard enough at that... I can't even imagine paying double.

 

[mcho78]

"Instant gratification", "Greed", "crooked Politicians and Lawyers" and "A handfull of mega wealthy families(Unknown to the general public) who basicaly control the worlds financial banking system" are some of the main causes. How come a politician can still hold office or better yet be a chairperson of some important comittee in Gov. when they are being investigated? A Politician who refuses to resign when caught in obvious fraud or corruption is given the benefit of the doubt almost every time, currently there are at least half a dozen in the US house or senate who's integrity is in question, they should be suspended untill cleared or at least not allowed to vote on important issues.
Some of the Main stream news companies are also in the pocket of many in power, they contribute millions to their campaigns and pet projects, the never report on anything that would cause concern to this relationship.
Iv'e never been one for conspiracy theories ect. but recently I found some very interesting material on various wierd things that have been going on for years and some of it makes sense to become educated about, for instance 'The Bilderberg Group" (google it) and other groups of very powerfull people who meet, Like at "The Bohemain Grove",(google it).
There is good evidence of major corruption and foul play, but even hard evidence is not acted upon, like ex CIA officer Chip Tatum who has documented evidence of high level misdeeds, see The tatum Chronicals.
Sooner or later people will get pissed enough and start asking questions of our great leaders, but we will have to wait and see I guess.
Had to get this off my chest, because I AM PISSED OFF at the powers that be.

Hey Caymen, love the conspiracy theories BUT I personally have my doubts about this... I really don't know how EFFICIENT/INGELLITENT/ORGANIZED any government is...

I mean think about it... you got to be pretty damn good to pull all this shit off for so damn long right? From what I make of it... no one knows what the hell is going on?

This does not just apply to the financial crisis... think about Iraq... if the government was really almight/alwelding why would so many people be questioning their actions... also wouldn't it have been easier to just "find" WMDs? This is just one example but how about all of the other secretive issues that have been revealed about the govt?

Whatever the case, I will definately take a look at the material mentioned above! Thanks for the heads up "thumbsup"

 

[mcho78]

Don't skimp on education or you'll regret it. Depending on what field you're interested in, choose a school that does internships as part of the schooling.

Working (paid) for 12 weeks, then school for another 12, then repeating that process starting as a freshman helped to considerably reduce student costs. Pretty much everything I earned at the internship went towards paying tuition.

Well said CPE "thumbsup"

You know what I find to be CRAZY? I work in finance mostly with institutional investors but from time to time I will interact with your average Joe in providing investment advice... now the really CRAZY thing is... I have seen a TON of people deeply investing into such and such product without a CLUE as to what the investment vehicle is...

Even the guys here on RCC will thoroughly research their next rig before their purchase right? But to not know where you LIFE savings are going??? WTF right?

CPE, education is key... not just schooling but we all need to educate ourselves better in order to better protect out interests...

 

[mcho78]

Live your life like your Grandparents did, pay cash!

If you can't afford it, you don't need it.

"thumbsup" You said it... now my only problem is... I dont feel the urge to replace my threadbare suits but that new high clearence alum. knuckle for the ax10 axles are a MUST :lol: talk about F(&*$d up right?

 

[mcho78]

Don't forget, the nosedive in the US economy is now taking it's toll on your neighbours to the north ! Our dollar is in the toilet (again) after being on par or above the US dollar last summer, real estate prices are tanking, building starts are tanking, etc. It was to be expected as others said though, the US is our biggest export destination, so when your economy goes down, you take us (and numerous other countries) with you.

Moreover, with real estate, it was definitely an artificially inflated market over the past few years. We bought just about 5 years ago, and within 2 years the "value" of our house had doubled. People could not even find houses to buy at the peak, it was bound to come tumbling back down to reality. Currently, we're looking at renewing our mortgage which is great news with interest rates being so low. I've got a stable job so while this economy is tough on some, I think I'll actually benefit.

Having said that, it's still not good for the unemployment rate to be soaring to near double digit numbers and for record numbers of personal bankruptcy. I highly doubt the stimulus plans being put forth from any government is going to do a hell of a lot, as most people are now saving anything they can, not spending it. Especially the huge number of baby boomers entering into retirement.

Hey Ecoli, not just Canada my friend... almost ALL developing nations in Asia are suffering due to the US recession... all this crap about decoupling is total bull... Asia depends on the US and EU markets for their exports and when I say depends, I am referring to 50% of gdp for some cases... as for the Canadian Dollor... look at all the Asian currencies... down the shitter as well. USD can only strengthen at this point as the rest of the world is lacking dollors... in short they have USD debt, USD costs (all commodities prices in dollors) etc etc... hence the USD Swap lines between several nations...

Housing is also pretty interesting... Japan housing is relatively stable as the Japanese have not been investing into real estate for the last 20 years... common logic is that once the parents die, the houses will automaically be inherited... BUT even with this 20 year old example, real estate prices have been booming for the last 5-10 years every where else in the world... whos fault is this? Real estate prices are falling every where... North America, Europe (Eastern & Western), better part of Asia, Middle East...